Shalom from Israel! I’ve been sitting here trying to figure out how to start off this newsletter and the best words that I can think of are “Oh, my goodness.” The past few weeks we’ve talked about the craziness in the world with South Korea’s bizarre martial law, France voting out its government, the ceasefire in Lebanon, and so many other wild occurrences. This week, Syria stepped up, said, “Hold my Arak,” then proceeded to drive the 54-year-long Assad regime right out of the country! Those of us watching could only stand by and give a slow clap while our jaws hung open. What we just saw in Syria was a God-work of epic proportions. More about the God part later.
Today’s newsletter will give you the who, what, and why of all that took place just on the other side of Israel’s northeast border. But it will be limited because of space. If you want the full breakdown, particularly of the history of Syria, what led to this rebellion, and the identities of all the players in the region, please watch my "MidEast Update: The Fall of Damascus" from Tuesday. In less than 48 hours, it already has nearly 300,000 views on YouTube due to its in-depth examination of the events. Please take time to watch it, so that you too can be informed as to what has happened and how you can be praying as a result.
What Happened?
Syria’s most recent regime began with Hafez al-Assad in 1970. Yes, there was a rich history prior to that going back to the time of Abraham, which you can hear about in my MidEast Update. But for our purposes here we’ll start with the beginning of the Alawite regime. The Alawites are a small Syrian minority that align closely with Shi’a Islam, a fact which didn’t play too well in what was Sunni Syria. Al-Assad was ruthless, butchering men, women, and children throughout the country.
When Hafez died, his son, Bashar, an unassuming-looking ophthalmologist, took over. Bashar was as bad, if not worse, than his father. Not only did he massacre the Syrian people, even using chemical weapons, he allowed Russia and Iran to join in the fight. In the 13-year civil war that began in 2011 as part of Barack Obama’s Arab Spring, more than 600,000 Syrians lost their lives. Many of them were outright slaughtered by government soldiers. As hard as the rebel armies fought, they couldn’t defeat the ruling minority Alawites because al-Assad had both Russia and Iran propping him up – sometimes with troops, and always with weapons.
But then at the end of November, the fighting in the north began to grow. Turkey weighed in on the side of the rebels, arming them to fight the government troops. More and more rebel groups began loading up their weapons and soon the force pushed southward. Aleppo, Hama, and Homs were all taken. Southern rebels saw what was happening and they, too, slammed their magazines into their AK-47s and set off. Soon, the rebels were entering Damascus and Bashar al-Assad fled to Russia where he was warmly welcomed partly due to his stunning personality and partly due to the $158 billion bank account he brought with him.
Who are the Major Players?
Essentially, the primary aggressors in the civil war are made up of Sunni rebels and Kurds. The Kurds are the largest people group in the world without a homeland, covering parts of Turkey, Iran, Iraq, and Syria. They are unwanted by all four countries in which they reside, with each of the countries at times trying to wipe them out and at others aiding them in settling into a neighboring nation. This is how Turkey got involved. One great way for Turkey to get the Kurds out of their country is to give help to the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), Peshmerga, and the People’s Protection Unit (YPG), a group which plays a significant role in my latest thriller, The Sick Man’s Rage, which was just released last week.
But of even greater consequence in the civil war are the Sunni rebels. The largest of these is Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS), which has taken the lead in establishing the new government. The leader of this rebel group is Ahmed al-Sharaa. Although this is the man’s real name, until this past weekend he was known his nom de guerre, Abu Mohammed al-Jolani. Unfortunately, his al-Jolani persona, was notorious for its previous ties to both al-Qaeda and the Islamic State (IS) in Iraq. Not the best track record with which to launch a new government. So, now it’s back to al-Sharaa. Unfortunately, he can’t change the names and reputations of his fellow Sunni groups, the Syrian Free Army (SFA), the Syrian National Army (SNA), the Islamic State in Syria (ISIS), and the Southern Operations Room (SOR), a group made up of Druze tribes and Syrian opposition groups.
Needless to say, it isn’t very encouraging to those of us in Israel to have these schmoes running the show. But we take our encouragement from three sources. First, the rebel groups are fighting each other. These aren’t a bunch of buddies who decided to team up and attack. HTS took the lead and when the rest saw them gaining ground, they joined in. But these guys hate each other. There’s no joy to us when we see them killing each other. However, we are glad they’re pointing guns at each other and not at us. Second, these groups have revenge against Assad on their minds. In one prison alone, Sednaya, north of Damascus, records were found indicating 29,000 executions taking place on the grounds. A mass grave was found containing the skeletons of prisoners who had been slaughtered, then their bodies dissolved in acid. These were the family and friends of the rebels. They’re out for blood. And not just of the Assad regime, but of the Iranians and Russians who propped up the president and his vicious military.
The third source of encouragement to Israelis is our own military. Iran and Russia had spent a lot of money outfitting Assad’s incompetent army. Prime Minister Netanyahu and the IDF were determined that this war materiel would not fall into the hands of the rebels. Thus, they launched Operation Arrow of Bashan. In only two days this week, Israel destroyed 80% of Syria’s military capabilities. This breaks down to the destruction of two navy facilities where 15 naval vessels were docked. At the same time, dozens of sea-to-sea missiles were destroyed. The Syrian air force was massively damaged, their airfields were blown up, and their anti-aircraft batteries were decimated. Scud missiles, cruise missiles, surface-to-sea missiles, surface-to-air missiles, surface-to-surface missiles, UAVs, fighter jets, attack helicopters, radars, tanks, hangars, and so much more were all blasted to pieces. There were air strikes on 130 assets, including weapons depots, military structures, launchers, firing positions, research centers, training centers, weapons caches, and chemical weapons stores. The take-offs and landings from the Ramat David airfield near my home was non-stop! As that was taking place, IDF tanks were in the buffer zone between Syria and Israel widening the gap to ensure safety on the Israeli side of the border. For the first time since October 7, 2023, it is now safe for many northern Israelis to go back to their homes.
Current Syria
It is evident that nearly everyone wants this war over as soon as possible, including the rebels. Ahmad al-Sharaa of the HTS said, “We have turned to stability. The [Syrian] people are exhausted, and we will not enter into another war.” Will they keep moving to Israel? No, says al-Sharaa. “Our concern was about Iran and Hezbollah who carried out the massacres.” By all appearances, al-Sharaa truly wants to go mainstream. He has installed the prime minister of his unrecognized rebel state as the new prime minister of the Syrian Transitional Government, with a term running until March 2025. Both the United States and the United Nations are already considering removing HTS from its list of terrorist groups if al-Sharaa can keep his people from going too crazy.
Unfortunately, Ahmad al-Sharaa can only control his own people, and even then only to an extent. Throughout Syria, there are mass executions and ethnic and religious cleansing taking place by HTS and SNA forces. And you can be sure that ISIS is carrying out their fair share of atrocities. Syria is not the place to be if you are a Christian or a Shiite Muslim. It’s for this reason that the United Kingdom is saying, “You’ll have to show us a lot more if you’re getting off our terrorist list.”
We can dance and cheer that Assad is out, but we must remember that these are not better people. They’re just different molds of the same dough. True, Russia and Iran are not pulling their strings. But with no oversight at all, the crazies just get crazier. We need to pray that calm and sensibility come to the new government, and that somehow al-Sharaa gets the will and the ability to cool the insanity that is taking place in Syria.
Quick List of Winners and Losers
Losers
1. Bashar al-Assad and his government – although a $135 billion nest egg makes the cold Moscow winters a little warmer
2. Russia – they no longer have power in Syria, and they aren’t wanted
3. Iran – their 45-year strategy of building proxy militias has just been blown sky high. They are in a greatly weakened state, and they better watch their backs when Trump gets into office. It’s likely their nuclear program will quickly disappear
Winners
1. Syrian rebels – they’d been fighting to push the Assads out for decades. They’ve finally done it. Unfortunately, they are being way too exuberant in their street justice
2. Turkey – they’ve been pouring money and manpower into training and equipping the rebels. Now they have influence in the new Syria
3. Israel – Neither Iran nor Russia is on our borders anymore. Instead, it’s just a bunch of crazies who have enough problems of their own to try messing with us. Still, we’ll keep our eyes on them
What Does this Mean for Israel?
I’ve had many people ask me if this is a fulfillment of Isaiah 17:1 which says that Damascus must be destroyed. It is not. Assad’s regime was destroyed. Damascus is still standing.
As I mentioned earlier, the north is now back open for Israeli citizens to move home. Not all are ready to do so, but they can if they want. If you had told me a few months ago that by December both Hamas and Hezbollah would be gone, I would have told you that you were dreaming. But this is what we see. Both terrorist groups are decimated to the point of being non-threats. That doesn’t mean Israel will give up hunting down threats. It’s just that we no longer have to worry about an invasion from the north or the south.
Israel is in a very strong place right now. Netanyahu has done what he said he would do; he has brought safety back to Israel. Many doubted him and many still do, but he has proved his mettle and will go down in history as one of the greatest Israeli leaders of all time. We are also in a great place because of the U.S. elections. Many in the incoming Trump administration are more Zionist than even some in our government. With our united front, Iran should be quaking in their boots. We’ve already seen the Iranian axis fall; next we’ll see their nuclear program collapse. It also looks very good for Israel in the Middle East. With the incoming Trump presidency, I see both the Saudis and the Indonesians quickly lining up for normalization with Israel under the Abraham accords.
With the collapse of Iran’s axis, Hamas has been left hanging. With prayer and strong negotiations, I believe we could see a hostage deal soon. Trump has already made it clear that the U.S. will step in to see the hostages returned quickly. Already Israel’s Defense Minister Katz and America’s Secretary of Defense Austin are talking about the negotiations with Hamas. The terrorists counted on two things: the public outcry for the hostages would overcome the government and Netanyahu would be forced to back down. Neither happened. Hopefully, individual Hamas members will give in to temptation and take the proffered $5 million for every hostage returned. Then they can slip away scot-free to enjoy their boon, at least until they get a secret visit from the Mossad.
These times are historic. Ever since October 7, we’ve constantly reminded ourselves “…but God is still on the throne.” This past week, He reminded us that He was there all along working and maneuvering. Then, when the timing was right – Bam! – He stepped in and did something marvelous before our eyes. He truly is the almighty God who proves over and over that He will never neglect to take care of His children.
